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Population Estimates - Basic

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Population Estimate - 2011

Two data sources were utilized to produce the 2011 population denominators. First, July 2011 Population Estimates for Arizona Counties, released by the Office of the State Demographer. It is important to note that in the data tabulated below the total State's population as well as the total population of each of the Arizona's fifteen counties match the July 2011 estimates. Second, the information about the population breakdowns by age, gender and race/ethnicity is based on, April 2010 Bridged-Race Population Estimates, available online on the National Vital Statistics website.

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    Population Estimate - 2010

    Unlike the population estimates for 2001-2009, the 2010 population denominators for Arizona reflect the census enumerations. The denominator tables below are based on the Demographic Profile of the State, which provided cross-tabulations of gender by five-year age groups (<5, 5-9, 10-14, etc) and county of residence. They were developed in June 2011. At that time, no such population data were available by race/ethnic group and/or single-year of age. Since we were about to release Advance Vital Statistics by County of Residence, Arizona, 2010, we have decided to use the number of resident births in 2010 as the population <1 year of age. When the census population by race/ethnicity, age, and gender became available on 7/14/2011, the difference between the number of resident births (87,053) and the population <1 year of age (87,557) did not seem statistically significant. See U.S. Census Bureau, American FactFinder.

    The decison to use the number of residents births slightly affected the size of of the population sub-group of children aged 1-14 years (we are using the number of 1,271,006 vs.the census count of 1,270,502; a difference of 504 or 0.04 percent).

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      Population Estimate - 2009

      The estimated total population of Arizona in 2009 (6,595,778) agrees with the U.S. Census Bureau estimate released in December 2009 (Table 1. Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009; NST-EST2009-01). The percentages of population breakdowns by age, race/ethnicity, gender, and county of residence were derived from our own population denominator database for 2008. These percentages were than applied to the estimated total state population for 2009 from the U.S. Census Bureau. The size of the population <1 year of age was adjusted down, to correspond with a substantial decrease in the number of resident births in 2009.

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        Population Estimate - 2008

        The 2008 population denominators assume that Arizona grew by 1.6 percent from 6,432,007 residents in 2007 to 6,534,921 in 2008. The slowest rate of population growth since 1990 was combined with an unprecedented decrease of 3.4 percent in the number of resident births (the only decrease since 1991). Hispanics or Latinos experienced a 6.8 percent decrease in the number of births. Our estimates take into account the decrease in the number of resident births and its impact on the estimated size of the population <1 year of age. In addition, the 2008 estimates are based on the assumption that factors affecting the population growth such as the number of illegal residents who had been driven out of the state, the decline in construction jobs, the number of foreclosures, the number of built but vacant homes, the decline in the number of resident births, etc., all apply primarily to metropolitan, not rural, counties. Our estimates of the total population of Apache, Cochise, Coconino, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Navajo, Santa Cruz, and Yuma counties agree with the 2008 population estimates developed by Population Statistics Unit in the Arizona Department of Commerce. Our estimates for Maricopa, Mohave, Pima, Pinal, and Yavapai counties are lower than the estimates of the Population Statistics Unit. The estimated total of 6,534,921 residents of Arizona in 2008 is similar to the latest estimate from the U.S. Census Bureau (6,500,180) but it is substantially lower than the Population Statistics Unit estimate of 6,629,455.

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          Population Estimate - 1991 - 1999

          These estimates are based on both the 1990 census and the 2000 census.

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